How to bet on Red cards – secondary football betting markets:
There are several ways to bet on football games, including PSG matches. If you don’t know anything about betting you can check our Begginers’ Guide to Football Betting.
Moreover, before jumping into the contents of red card betting you may want to learn how to bet on the yellow cards’ betting market.
Yesterday PSG had a game full of cards against Reims. Would that have been a nice game to bet on cards?
Red card betting: unlike the Yellow card betting market
In most football games there are more yellow cards than red cards, the exception being games where there are major fights between the teams and lots of players end up being sent off, but these are rare cases.
For that reason, the yellow card betting market is a typical over/under market. Red card betting is organized around whether a specific team or the match itself will have a red card or not.
Let’s see some examples from an upcoming game today between Lille and Lens, part of the tenth round of Ligue 1 2022/2023.
A red card in the match: 4.33
Red Card in Second Half: 5.0
Lens to have a red card: 7.0
Lille to have a red card: 8.0
Red Card in First Half: 15.0
Both teams to have a red card: 51.0
These are average market odds right now.
The probabilities and numbers behind red card football betting odds
Let’s understand the reasons behind the odds above. Each odd has an underlying number. The odds stabilize around the expectations of the market.
Let’s use the easiest example above: a Red card in the second half. The odds of 5.0 mean that the market expects a chance of circa 20% for this game to produce a red in the 2nd half.
That’s why: 100% = all possible results. 20% = expectation/probability of a red in the 2nd half.
100% / 20% = 5.0.
The odds of ‘a red card in the match’, that is, whatever moment including the first and the second half, must be lower (4.33 in this case) than just for the second half. The probability of a red in the first half is not big, that’s why the odds for a red in the first half are bigger (15.0).
The explanation is simple: the second half is when the game is decided, defending players often have yellows and the players are usually more nervous, tired, and often make poor decisions.
You may wonder why the odds for both teams to have reds is so big. Well, it’s simple: statistically, according to these odds, around 2% of the games have reds shown to both sides!
Here’s the math behind it: 100% / 51.0 ~= 1.96%
How to beat the red card markets: soccer betting tips
Some stuff is rather obvious like if many players have a yellow, in the in-running market, then the live scenario may prove to be profitable.
If the coach subs in a particularly violent player, especially a defensive player like a centre-back or a defensive midfielder, that can be interesting to bet on the reds.
If, on the other hand, we have a case in which both teams are happy with the result, like a draw that will bring them the points they need in the last round of a competition like Ligue 1, then the game tends to be calmer.
Use your football betting knowledge on your behalf to profit with Ligue 1 and UEFA Champions League bets!