Learn how to bet on the Ligue 1 Outrights market:
The outright or outrights market is where the bettors try to guess what team will win the upcoming or ongoing edition of a football tournament.
In this case, the 2022/23 season of Ligue 1. If you want to learn how to bet on soccer, check out this beginners’ guide to football betting. If you want to learn how to bet on other Ligue 1 markets, check out this special Ligue 1 betting guide.
Let’s learn how to bet on the upcoming French champions and how to calculate and choose good odds to bet.
Ligue 1 Outright: chances and betting odds
Betting odds are traded and calculated based on the chances of a team winning a specific tournament. The current odds for PSG to win yet another Ligue 1 trophy are 1.03. This means the market considers them the absolute favourites to win.
After 10 rounds played, PSG is just 3 points clear over Marseille. But the recent editions of Ligue 1 show that the odds for the Parisian team to win are more than justified.
Protagonists: PSG and the odds to win Ligue 1 2022/2023
PSG has lifted the trophy in 8 out of 10 seasons since 2012/2013. And Paris Saint-Germain has only improved in terms of international protagonism during this 10-season period.
They started to have real hopes to win the UEFA Champions League, and it’s fair to say that Monaco was a totally different contender when they still had Mbappé. The title of Nice can be described as a lack of focus of PSG on Ligue 1 because the team certainly is the protagonist of this league.
But aren’t the odds for the potential triumph of other clubs a bit too big? Let’s learn how to translate outright odds into percentages.
How to calculate soccer outright betting odds
This is how to calculate the underlying percentage of an odd, considering it to be a fair odd. We’ll explain more in detail soon what a fair odd is, but for now, have in mind that a fair odd is one that reflects the exact chance of an event happening.
PSG Chances to win the Ligue 1 2022 / 2023 edition.
Average market odds: 1.03
100% (all possibilities of all teams winning) / 1.03 = 97.08%
If you divide all possibilities combined by the odds, you obtain the underlying percentage.
So the market sees PSG as having a probability of 97.08% to win the current season. Are these numbers accurate, considering the little advantage of PSG right now in the classification table?
Analyzing the current chances of PSG winning Ligue 1 2022/2023
PSG won 80% of the last 10 seasons of Ligue 1. They also won 80% of the last 5 seasons. The fair odds for PSG to have just an 80% of chance would be 1.25, as per the calculations below:
100% (all possibilities) / 80% = 1.25
So the odds for PSG to win can indeed be a little too low considering the recent past. Other factors however indicate that some PSG players are taking the domestic season more seriously than ever to prepare for the upcoming FIFA World Cup.
Marseille has odds of 25.83, Monaco 45.83, and Lille, the winners of the 2020/2021 season, 325.83.
Clearly, the market doesn’t see other teams as true contenders. But the football betting markets are full of unlikely odds being paid, such as Leicester, which had odds of 5001.0 to win the English Premier League in 2016!